26 August 2026 has not happened yet. That is the date Round One offers issue, at 2pm, and it is the moment the first genuine 2026 figures come into being. Until then, no course on the Central Applications Office (CAO) system carries a settled 2026 requirement. Anyone showing you one is showing you a forecast.
CollegeRoute is a free set of Irish Leaving Certificate and CAO planning tools at collegeroute.ie. The site keeps recorded history and expectation in separate boxes, and labels which is which. This article sets out the record, five cycles of it, and the date 2026 becomes real. CollegeRoute is operated by Onoir Studio Limited and has no connection to the Central Applications Office.
What Does CAO Points 2026 Mean Right Now?
Right now the phrase describes an expectation, not a published requirement. The 2026 applicant group has not met the offers process yet. What does exist is history: the figures recorded in earlier cycles, and the pattern of how those figures moved. CollegeRoute holds the 2024 and 2025 data in Points Search.
Splitting the two is the whole job. A recorded figure measures something that already happened. An expectation is a reasoned band built on measurements. Confusing them leaves a student with one number and no room around it.
- Recorded: the 2024 and 2025 course requirement figures in Points Search
- Recorded: how many courses rose, fell or held over five cycles
- Not recorded: any 2026 requirement, because Round One has not run
- Not recorded: the grades the 2026 applicant group will carry
Why No 2026 Course Requirement Exists Yet
A course requirement is an output of the offers process, not a rule set in advance. Applicants are ranked by points, and places are filled from the top down. The total held by the last applicant offered a place becomes the recorded figure for that round.
This is why the cao points 2026 page on CollegeRoute shows the 2024 and 2025 columns filled and the 2026 column empty. The empty column is the honest answer, and it fills on 26 August 2026.
What Do Five Cycles of Movement Show?
They show constant movement around a small middle. Across five comparisons the median move ranged from +15 points down to -10 points. In three of those cycles the median sat at zero or within one point of it. The middle looks calm, yet hundreds of courses moved every year.
| Cycle | Courses compared | Rose, fell, held | Median move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 to 2021 | 1,235 | 886 / 289 / 60 | +15 |
| 2021 to 2022 | 1,118 | 515 / 529 / 74 | 0 |
| 2022 to 2023 | 748 | 226 / 473 / 49 | -10 |
| 2023 to 2024 | 1,226 | 530 / 590 / 106 | 0 |
| 2024 to 2025 | 1,238 | 633 / 511 / 94 | +1 |
Read the third column before the fourth. In the 2024 to 2025 comparison, 633 courses rose and 511 fell, while only 94 held their figure exactly. A median of +1 point describes the middle of that list. It says very little about the one course you want.
How Far Can a Single Course Move in One Cycle?
Far enough to break a plan built on one number. The largest single fall in the recorded set is 240 points. The largest single rise is 269 points. Those two courses are outliers, yet they are real entries in the same data that produces the calm medians.
So take the 2024 and 2025 figures for a course, note the gap between them, then allow room on both sides. A band like that absorbs an ordinary year. It will not absorb a 269 point rise, and no honest tool will promise otherwise.
How Should You Plan Before Round One?
Work from your own total first, then from a band around each course.
- Work out a realistic total from your best six subjects with the CAO points calculator
- Read the 2024 and 2025 figures for each course in Points Search
- Treat the gap between those two years as your planning band
- Order your CAO list by genuine preference, because the process works down it in order
- Use the CAO Offers Simulator to test that order before 26 August 2026
Course Matcher helps when the band puts a course out of reach. It finds related courses by subject or by college, so a second route appears before offers day rather than after it.
Where Does Recorded Data End and Expectation Begin?
The line sits where a figure is produced by an actual offer. Everything before that point is inference, however careful. CollegeRoute marks that line on every page touching 2026.
- A recorded figure names its cycle, for example the 2025 requirement for a named course
- An expectation names a band and states plainly that it may be wrong
- A predicted 2026 requirement dressed as fact is neither, and it deserves no weight
Frequently Asked Questions
When do the first genuine CAO points 2026 figures appear?
The first real set arrives with Round One offers on 26 August 2026 at 2pm. Before that moment no 2026 course requirement exists, because the figure is produced by the offers process itself. Later rounds can add further figures for courses that still hold places available after the first round.
Does a median move near zero mean points are stable?
No. The median only describes the middle of a long list. In the 2024 to 2025 comparison, 633 courses rose and 511 fell out of 1,238 compared, so most courses moved somewhere. Only 94 held their figure exactly. Stability in the middle does not mean stability for your course.
How much can one course move between two cycles?
The recorded range is wide. Across the compared cycles the largest single fall reached 240 points and the largest single rise reached 269 points. Those are outliers rather than typical results. They show why one historical figure makes a weak anchor for a single course choice.
Should the 2025 figure be my target for 2026?
Treat it as one edge of a band rather than a target line. Compare the 2024 and 2025 figures for the same course, then allow room in both directions. In the 2024 to 2025 set only 94 courses out of 1,238 held exactly, so movement is the normal outcome.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute professional career, educational, or admissions advice. CAO points and course requirements are determined by the Central Applications Office and can change after publication. CollegeRoute is a free planning tool not affiliated with the CAO. Readers should verify all details with official CAO sources. The author and publisher disclaim all liability for any decisions or outcomes based on this content. This article does not guarantee specific course entry.
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